Information Capacity in the Mirror of Foreign Trade Data? A Case Study of Chinese Maritime Customs, 1864–1938 

Accepted. Asia-Pacific Economic History Review. Forthcoming

Abstract: This paper introduces a new approach to explore the information capacity of the Chinese Maritime Customs from 1864 to 1938. It employs a mirror analysis by comparing Chinese Maritime Customs’ international trade data with that of China’s major trading partners: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Findings reveal that Chinese Maritime Customs’ improvements in measuring foreign trade frequently coincided with its institutional reforms. The results highlight that these improvements were not uniform across different regions. Specifically, the persistent discrepancies between Chinese Maritime Customs’ and Japanese data underscore the influence of geopolitics since late 19th century.

Keywords: Information capacity, Foreign Trade, Data Accuracy, Chinese Maritime Customs

1. After the Manila Galleon and before the boom: the transpacific trade between Asia and Latin America, 1876-1938 (with Anna Carreras Marín and José Alejandro Peres Cajías)

Abstract: The transpacific trade history between Asia and Latin America is highlighted by the prosperity of interoceanic trade via Manila Galleon in colonial era, and the trade boom after the World War II. The First Globalization (1870-1914), a period characterized by the flourishing of transatlantic and trans-Eurasian trade, appears to be a “lost” period for the transpacific trade between Asia and Latin America. This paper addresses this literature gap by exploring the characteristics and evolution of these transpacific trade flows between the two regions then considered peripheral in the world. Based on official historical trade data yearbooks of Latin American countries, this study delves into the detailed analysis of trade relations between Asia (China, Japan, India) and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru), focusing specifically on Latin American imports from Asia between 1876 and 1938.

Keywords: transpacific trade, Asia, Latin America, the First Globalization

2. Trade at the Margins: Hidden Commercial Patterns between Asia and Latin America, 1980-2020

Abstract: At the margins of the great tide of transpacific globalization between China and Latin America since 1980s, there exist informal local economic activities and cross-border illicit trade. This paper addresses the smuggling in Bolivia’s imports of Chinese products via Chile, providing a macroeconomic perspective to illustrate the informal trade that has emerged from Latin America’s economic periphery. To this end, we conduct a mirror analysis by comparing Bolivia’s import data with export data of China and Chile. Our analysis identifies substantial over-reporting in Bolivia’s declaration of imports from China and under-reporting in Bolivia’s declaration of imports from Chile. The results also indicate that the largest discrepancies appear in the products of textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles, rubber manufactures, road vehicles, telecommunications equipment, electrical machinery, articles of footwear, apparel and clothing accessories. These findings suggest that Bolivia has imported these Chinese products through re-exportation from other transit countries. Additionally, Chile is an important entrepôt country for Bolivia’s imports and part of this transit trade probably occurring through unofficial or illegal channels.

Keywords: foreign trade data, smuggling, China, Latin America